Founder of Sonderberg Research

Selected views.
In public. Timestamped.

I share market research for business owners and executives investing six to seven figures in crypto and equities. I'm Diego Sonderberg, founder of Sonderberg Research. My focus is on market cycles. Read selected past views, check the sources, and see how my thinking changed over time.

See how Sonderberg Research works→
Portrait of Diego Sonderberg.

Proof at a Glance

The record speaks first.

Selected research and career highlights are below. Market views include the source material available for each item.

November 10, 2024
Taking partial profits
A dated post discusses partial profit-taking on SOL, FLOKI, SHIBA, and TON. Read the screenshot in the archive below.
April 7, 2025
Accumulation zones
Screenshots from April 7 and 8 discuss ETH, SOL, TAO, and S&P 500 futures. They show the views posted at the time.
September 16, 2025
A Bitcoin short view
A September 16 post on X discusses a Bitcoin short position. The original link and screenshot are below.
November 18–19, 2025 → July 2026
A price thesis, updated
November 2025 posts set out a Bitcoin price view. July and August 2026 posts show later changes to the thesis.
2020 – 2025
Technology ventures
My background includes work as an advisor and investor in technology ventures.
2022 – 2025
From trading to research
After building a trading and research team, I narrowed my focus to working with founders, business owners, and investors with six- and seven-figure portfolios.

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Sound Familiar?

You're running a company. You can't also be a full-time investor.

You don't have 10 hours a week for charts, 20 indicators, or crypto Twitter. So you invest reactively: buying strength, holding through drawdowns, round-tripping profits you already had.

A large correction can affect more than a portfolio. It can also cost time, sleep, and focus.

Not because you're not smart. You built a company. But nobody ever installed a real system for your capital.

That's exactly what I do.

Who I Work With

Built for founders with serious capital.

Founders, business owners and executives

I work exclusively with a small number of founders and business owners investing six to seven figures across crypto, equities and cash. They have already built the wealth. My job is to put a system around it. Through Sonderberg Research, we use a structured framework built around macro, market structure and sentiment to help identify when risk is rising, when capital should be deployed, and when major market conditions are changing. The goal is simple: make the few major portfolio decisions that matter each cycle without turning investing into a second full-time job.

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The Story

How I got here.

Why one industry insider decided the crypto space needed a voice with receipts.

The short version: many years inside the Swiss Stock Exchange, early advisor and investor on both sides of traditional finance and crypto, builder of a trading education network for the German-speaking market, and today the founder of Sonderberg Research in Florida, USA, working 1:1 with six- and seven-figure investors. Here is how it happened, step by step.

Where it started.

I was born and raised in Zurich, Switzerland. My father was a stockbroker, I placed my first trades at 18, and I spent years working professionally at the Swiss Stock Exchange, seeing how markets actually function beneath the price chart.

The crypto years and the wake-up call.

From 2020 through 2025 I advised and invested in several ICOs based out of Switzerland and Liechtenstein. One venture later moved toward EdTech and AI software. A post about the venture and its company website provide more background.

Inside the industry I learned to ask how a market view was formed and what supported it. That became my mission: share the research, link to the sources, and explain when a view changes.

What changed everything was learning directly from institutional investors managing serious capital, including an investor from Southeast Asia: strip away emotion, follow the facts, and understand that while perfect timing is impossible, getting remarkably close is not. A Germany-based macro investor deepened the macro side. Over the years I built those lessons into my own system: a framework combining macro, technicals, and sentiment, the same one I show openly in my YouTube videos.

Building and outgrowing a trading education company.

In 2022 I co-founded a trading and investing education platform for the German-speaking market (originally UpCrypto Trading), publishing crypto market analysis for members. In 2024 we expanded internationally with an English membership. In 2025 I bought out my co-founder, a successful Swiss crypto investor, and rebranded the company as Velaris Trading, building a trading network with traders and analysts working directly with members.

Alongside this, I served as an advisor and investor in EB1, an invite-only card business.

The shift to serious wealth.

By mid-2025, the people seeking me out had changed. More founders, business owners and executives with six- and seven-figure portfolios were coming to me directly for help making sense of major market cycles, portfolio risk and when to deploy or reduce capital. I also began working with wealth management firms on crypto and cycle research. That summer, I launched my YouTube channel with the same audience in mind: successful people managing serious capital who did not have the time, or desire, to become full-time market analysts.

What I kept seeing was the same problem. These were highly successful operators who had systems for their businesses, teams and finances, but no real system around their investments. They were reacting to markets, holding through major drawdowns, round-tripping profits and spending far too much time trying to decide what to do next. The problem was not intelligence. Their portfolios simply lacked the same structure they applied everywhere else in their lives.

So at the end of 2025, I made a deliberate shift. I moved away from serving traders through a membership model and began working exclusively with a smaller number of founders, business owners and executives investing six and seven figures. I traded scale for depth. That became Sonderberg Research, built around a simple idea: serious capital deserves a real operating system. Today, the work combines market research, portfolio decision infrastructure and direct 1:1 guidance to help clients make the few major decisions that matter each cycle without turning investing into a second full-time job.

What that looks like in practice: I work 1:1 with every client, directly. Each client gets a personalized dashboard running my research framework: market views across the assets the service covers and a daily risk metric. You can review the dashboard on your own schedule.

Weekly briefings cover macro, crypto, and equities. I share market views, explain the reasons behind them, and provide direct support as set out in each client agreement.

Review the dashboard and briefings on your own schedule. The time you need will depend on your questions and market conditions.

See if the system fits your portfolio.

Apply for Strategy Call or watch how the system works first →

The Track Record

The ledger.

This archive shows selected past market views, source posts, screenshots, and later updates. It is not a complete investment performance record and does not establish any client return.

2023
Entry source pending

A view revisited

The later November 2024 screenshot below refers to a SOL investment from 2023. An original entry-date source is not included with this entry, so it does not establish an investment return.

November 10, 2024
Screenshot included

Profit-taking notes

In a November 10, 2024 post, I discussed partial profit-taking on SOL, FLOKI, SHIBA, and TON and wrote: almost 1,000% in profit since our investment in 2023. This is a quote from the post, not an audited return.

Screenshot of a November 10, 2024 post about SOL, FLOKI, SHIBA and TON.
January – February 2025
Screenshot included

Market risk warnings

A post dated February 15 said: We're seeing classic top signals that have been ignored in past cycles… I'd rather stay cautious and take profits, just as I have been since November.

A later post dated February 25 said: By January, we became even more cautious and I warned about a potential top… Meanwhile, crypto "gurus" remained overly bullish, ignoring clear macro risks. Now we see the result.

Screenshot of a February 15, 2025 post about market cycle risk. Screenshot of a February 25, 2025 post about market risk and taking profits.
February 19, 2025
Screenshot included

OM profit-taking

In a February 19, 2025 post about OM, I wrote: Certainly not a bad time to take profits. The source does not establish which trades any client made or what any client earned.

Screenshot of a February 19, 2025 post about OM.
April 7 – 8, 2025
Screenshot included

Crypto and equities

The earlier ETH view quoted here said be prepared for price levels between roughly $1,500 and $1,100 and that zone could offer a fantastic accumulation opportunity. The screenshots below contain April 7 and 8 market posts.

Excerpts, with the times and dates listed in this archive:
3:16 AM: ETH is in our accumulation zone, at 1,400.
3:24 AM: I'm buying SOL at 98 here and TAO at 177.
5:42 AM: SPX Futures have reached our key zone around 4900 today, a level we've been discussing for weeks… the deeper the market falls, the greater the opportunity for long-term positions.
April 8: All of our signals were triggered on Monday, and as shared, I made my buys accordingly.

These are statements from the source posts. They do not prove trade fills, exact market lows, or a client return.

Screenshot of an April 7, 2025 post about ETH price levels. Screenshot of an April 7, 2025 post about SOL and TAO price levels. Screenshot of an April 7, 2025 post about S&P 500 futures. Screenshot of an April 8, 2025 post about buy signals.
July 2025
Source linked

"The top is only months away"

The July 2025 video linked below set out a view that a cycle top could be approaching.

August – September 2025
Source linked

The rotation view

A September 11 post on X discussed the Altcoin Season Index and rotating exposure. It said: Rotate from alts into Bitcoin and cash. I already did that weeks ago… Do not roundtrip your gains chasing the last 10–20% when you already sit on 500%.

September 16, 2025
Source linked

Bitcoin short view

On September 16, 2025, I wrote on X: I am shorting Bitcoin here. The original post and screenshot are below. The post is a statement about a position, not proof of trade fills or a return.

Screenshot of a September 16, 2025 post about a Bitcoin short position.
December 5, 2025
Source linked

The cycle roadmap

The December 5, 2025 video set out a Bitcoin scenario involving the 50-week moving average, a retest, and a move toward the 200-week moving average. The original timing view pointed toward October 2026. Later views allowed for an earlier low. The July and August 2026 entry below explains how the thesis changed.

Bitcoin cycle chart dated December 5, 2025.
February 5, 2026
Source linked

The bearish thesis

A February 5, 2026 post on X said: Shorted BTC at ~120K. BTC is down 45% since I called the cycle top. BTC can easily go down another 50% from here. Bearish until I see clear bottom signs.

May 4, 2026
Source linked

A rally scenario

The May 4 post linked below discussed a possible rally within a broader bearish view. An earlier YouTube view said: Do not be mistaken by the recent pump and the coming one… There will even be slight euphoria in the markets

July – August 2026
Source linked

Updating the thesis

The July 1 YouTube source post discussed a Bitcoin long at $58,500. Later posts discussed exposure around $60K and selected crypto-related stocks.

My original roadmap had pointed toward a later low around September or October, and my later base case had moved below $45K. I had also discussed the possibility that a widely expected October low could arrive earlier.

As the evidence changed, I updated the view. The later sub-$45K scenario was invalidated. The point is to follow the evidence rather than defend an old prediction.

This archive shows selected examples, including changed views. It is not a complete investment performance record. Past views do not promise future results.

Not ready for a call? Read The Sonderberg Letter for notes on macro, market structure, and sentiment. Free, once a month.

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What Clients Say

In their words.

Real client messages. Unedited, redacted only for privacy.

"Diego is a master at seeing the big picture."

Private client · USA

Screenshot of a WhatsApp message labeled Private client, USA.

"One of the best decisions I've made in my investing journey."

Rob K. · Private client

Screenshot of a WhatsApp message attributed to Rob K.

"It's honestly insane what you've been putting out over the last few years."

Leo · Private client · USA

Screenshot of a WhatsApp message attributed to Leo.

"Thank you for your relentless effort."

Stefan · Private client

Screenshot of a WhatsApp message attributed to Stefan.
Portrait of Diego Sonderberg.

Work With Me

Your business has a system. Your portfolio should too.

If you're a founder or business owner investing six to seven figures and you want a clearer system for when to deploy capital, reduce risk and take profits, without spending your week watching markets, let's talk. Your business already runs on a system. Your portfolio should too.

Apply for Strategy Call Prefer to watch first? See how the system works →

On this call, we discuss three things: (1) your research questions, (2) how the service works, and (3) whether it fits what you are looking for. Review the written scope, fees, and terms before deciding whether to join.

For business owners and executives with six- and seven-figure portfolios

FAQ

Common questions.

Who is Diego Sonderberg?
Diego Sonderberg is the founder of Sonderberg Research, operated by UCT Holding LLC in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Born in Zurich, Switzerland, his background spans trading, market research, blockchain ventures, and work at the Swiss Stock Exchange. Today, he works primarily with founders, business owners and executives investing six and seven figures, helping them put a clear system around major portfolio decisions.
What does Diego Sonderberg actually do?
Diego studies major market cycles across crypto, equities, macro and liquidity. His work focuses on a few decisions that can have an outsized impact on a portfolio: when risk is rising, when capital should be deployed, when exposure should be reduced, and when the evidence suggests the market regime is changing.
Is Diego Sonderberg's track record public?
This website shows selected past views with source posts, screenshots, and later updates. They include profit-taking discussions, market risk warnings, Bitcoin price scenarios, and changes to those scenarios. These examples are not a complete performance record or proof of any client return. Review the sources above.
Has Diego Sonderberg ever been wrong?
Yes. No serious market analyst is right every time. The purpose of the public ledger is to show how calls actually developed, including when a thesis changed or was invalidated. In 2026, for example, a later scenario for Bitcoin to fall below $45K was invalidated as the evidence changed and the market appeared to front-run the expected autumn bottom. Later posts discussed building long exposure around $60K rather than waiting for the old forecast. The rule is simple: follow the evidence, not the prediction.
What is Diego Sonderberg's investment approach?
The framework combines three main areas: macro and liquidity, higher-timeframe market structure, and sentiment and positioning. No single indicator makes the decision. The goal is to combine the evidence, identify major changes in risk and reward, and make fewer, higher-quality decisions across the market cycle.
Who does Diego work with?
Diego works primarily with founders, business owners and executives investing six and seven figures across crypto, equities and cash. They have already built meaningful wealth but do not want managing markets to become another full-time job. He also provides outside research and crypto-cycle expertise to select wealth management firms.
What is Sonderberg Research?
Sonderberg Research is the private research business founded by Diego Sonderberg. It applies the same market-cycle framework shown publicly on this website to the problems faced by investors managing substantial portfolios. The focus is on research, portfolio decision infrastructure, market monitoring and direct guidance rather than courses, day trading or a mass signal group. → sonderbergresearch.com
Does Diego manage client money?
No. Sonderberg Research does not take custody of client funds or have discretionary control over client accounts. Clients keep control of their own assets and make their own final decisions. The work centers on research, market frameworks, decision systems and implementation support.
Does Diego only focus on Bitcoin and crypto?
No. Crypto is an important part of Diego's work, but the framework is cross-asset. Research also covers equities, cash, commodities, interest rates, the US dollar, liquidity and the broader macro environment. Capital should follow the best risk and reward available, not loyalty to one asset class.
Why publish market calls publicly?
Because claims are easy to make after the move. A timestamp makes them harder to rewrite. Diego's view is that investors should not trust analysts, gurus or marketers simply because they sound convincing. Look at what they said before the move, when they said it, and what they did when the facts changed.
How can I work with Diego?
If you are a founder or business owner investing six or seven figures, you can learn more about working with Diego through Sonderberg Research. Start by reviewing the firm and, if it looks relevant to your situation, apply for a Strategy Call. → sonderbergresearch.com

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