A view revisited
The later November 2024 screenshot below refers to a SOL investment from 2023. An original entry-date source is not included with this entry, so it does not establish an investment return.
Founder of Sonderberg Research
I share market research for business owners and executives investing six to seven figures in crypto and equities. I'm Diego Sonderberg, founder of Sonderberg Research. My focus is on market cycles. Read selected past views, check the sources, and see how my thinking changed over time.
See how Sonderberg Research works→
Proof at a Glance
Selected research and career highlights are below. Market views include the source material available for each item.
Watch an example of how I review a market and explain the research process.
This video is hosted on YouTube. It stays off this page. If you follow the link, YouTube receives data under its own privacy policy.
Watch this video on YouTubeSound Familiar?
You don't have 10 hours a week for charts, 20 indicators, or crypto Twitter. So you invest reactively: buying strength, holding through drawdowns, round-tripping profits you already had.
A large correction can affect more than a portfolio. It can also cost time, sleep, and focus.
Not because you're not smart. You built a company. But nobody ever installed a real system for your capital.
That's exactly what I do.
Who I Work With
I work exclusively with a small number of founders and business owners investing six to seven figures across crypto, equities and cash. They have already built the wealth. My job is to put a system around it. Through Sonderberg Research, we use a structured framework built around macro, market structure and sentiment to help identify when risk is rising, when capital should be deployed, and when major market conditions are changing. The goal is simple: make the few major portfolio decisions that matter each cycle without turning investing into a second full-time job.
See how Sonderberg Research worksThe Story
Why one industry insider decided the crypto space needed a voice with receipts.
The short version: many years inside the Swiss Stock Exchange, early advisor and investor on both sides of traditional finance and crypto, builder of a trading education network for the German-speaking market, and today the founder of Sonderberg Research in Florida, USA, working 1:1 with six- and seven-figure investors. Here is how it happened, step by step.
I was born and raised in Zurich, Switzerland. My father was a stockbroker, I placed my first trades at 18, and I spent years working professionally at the Swiss Stock Exchange, seeing how markets actually function beneath the price chart.
From 2020 through 2025 I advised and invested in several ICOs based out of Switzerland and Liechtenstein. One venture later moved toward EdTech and AI software. A post about the venture and its company website provide more background.
Inside the industry I learned to ask how a market view was formed and what supported it. That became my mission: share the research, link to the sources, and explain when a view changes.
What changed everything was learning directly from institutional investors managing serious capital, including an investor from Southeast Asia: strip away emotion, follow the facts, and understand that while perfect timing is impossible, getting remarkably close is not. A Germany-based macro investor deepened the macro side. Over the years I built those lessons into my own system: a framework combining macro, technicals, and sentiment, the same one I show openly in my YouTube videos.
In 2022 I co-founded a trading and investing education platform for the German-speaking market (originally UpCrypto Trading), publishing crypto market analysis for members. In 2024 we expanded internationally with an English membership. In 2025 I bought out my co-founder, a successful Swiss crypto investor, and rebranded the company as Velaris Trading, building a trading network with traders and analysts working directly with members.
Alongside this, I served as an advisor and investor in EB1, an invite-only card business.
By mid-2025, the people seeking me out had changed. More founders, business owners and executives with six- and seven-figure portfolios were coming to me directly for help making sense of major market cycles, portfolio risk and when to deploy or reduce capital. I also began working with wealth management firms on crypto and cycle research. That summer, I launched my YouTube channel with the same audience in mind: successful people managing serious capital who did not have the time, or desire, to become full-time market analysts.
What I kept seeing was the same problem. These were highly successful operators who had systems for their businesses, teams and finances, but no real system around their investments. They were reacting to markets, holding through major drawdowns, round-tripping profits and spending far too much time trying to decide what to do next. The problem was not intelligence. Their portfolios simply lacked the same structure they applied everywhere else in their lives.
So at the end of 2025, I made a deliberate shift. I moved away from serving traders through a membership model and began working exclusively with a smaller number of founders, business owners and executives investing six and seven figures. I traded scale for depth. That became Sonderberg Research, built around a simple idea: serious capital deserves a real operating system. Today, the work combines market research, portfolio decision infrastructure and direct 1:1 guidance to help clients make the few major decisions that matter each cycle without turning investing into a second full-time job.
What that looks like in practice: I work 1:1 with every client, directly. Each client gets a personalized dashboard running my research framework: market views across the assets the service covers and a daily risk metric. You can review the dashboard on your own schedule.
Weekly briefings cover macro, crypto, and equities. I share market views, explain the reasons behind them, and provide direct support as set out in each client agreement.
Review the dashboard and briefings on your own schedule. The time you need will depend on your questions and market conditions.
See if the system fits your portfolio.
Apply for Strategy Call or watch how the system works first →The Track Record
This archive shows selected past market views, source posts, screenshots, and later updates. It is not a complete investment performance record and does not establish any client return.
The later November 2024 screenshot below refers to a SOL investment from 2023. An original entry-date source is not included with this entry, so it does not establish an investment return.
A post dated February 15 said: We're seeing classic top signals that have been ignored in past cycles… I'd rather stay cautious and take profits, just as I have been since November.
A later post dated February 25 said: By January, we became even more cautious and I warned about a potential top… Meanwhile, crypto "gurus" remained overly bullish, ignoring clear macro risks. Now we see the result.
The earlier ETH view quoted here said be prepared for price levels between roughly $1,500 and $1,100
and that zone could offer a fantastic accumulation opportunity.
The screenshots below contain April 7 and 8 market posts.
Excerpts, with the times and dates listed in this archive:
3:16 AM: ETH is in our accumulation zone, at 1,400
.
3:24 AM: I'm buying SOL at 98 here and TAO at 177.
5:42 AM: SPX Futures have reached our key zone around 4900 today, a level we've been discussing for weeks… the deeper the market falls, the greater the opportunity for long-term positions.
April 8: All of our signals were triggered on Monday, and as shared, I made my buys accordingly.
These are statements from the source posts. They do not prove trade fills, exact market lows, or a client return.
The July 2025 video linked below set out a view that a cycle top could be approaching.
A September 11 post on X discussed the Altcoin Season Index and rotating exposure. It said: Rotate from alts into Bitcoin and cash. I already did that weeks ago… Do not roundtrip your gains chasing the last 10–20% when you already sit on 500%.
On September 16, 2025, I wrote on X: I am shorting Bitcoin here
. The original post and screenshot are below. The post is a statement about a position, not proof of trade fills or a return.
Posts dated November 18 and 19 said: Bitcoin at 50K–60K in 2026
and Bitcoin is going for 60K
. The linked video explains the price scenario.
Later view: see the July and August 2026 update below.
The December 5, 2025 video set out a Bitcoin scenario involving the 50-week moving average, a retest, and a move toward the 200-week moving average. The original timing view pointed toward October 2026. Later views allowed for an earlier low. The July and August 2026 entry below explains how the thesis changed.
A February 5, 2026 post on X said: Shorted BTC at ~120K. BTC is down 45% since I called the cycle top. BTC can easily go down another 50% from here. Bearish until I see clear bottom signs.
The May 4 post linked below discussed a possible rally within a broader bearish view. An earlier YouTube view said: Do not be mistaken by the recent pump and the coming one… There will even be slight euphoria in the markets
The July 1 YouTube source post discussed a Bitcoin long at $58,500. Later posts discussed exposure around $60K and selected crypto-related stocks.
My original roadmap had pointed toward a later low around September or October, and my later base case had moved below $45K. I had also discussed the possibility that a widely expected October low could arrive earlier.
As the evidence changed, I updated the view. The later sub-$45K scenario was invalidated. The point is to follow the evidence rather than defend an old prediction.
This archive shows selected examples, including changed views. It is not a complete investment performance record. Past views do not promise future results.
Work With Me
If you're a founder or business owner investing six to seven figures and you want a clearer system for when to deploy capital, reduce risk and take profits, without spending your week watching markets, let's talk. Your business already runs on a system. Your portfolio should too.
Apply for Strategy Call Prefer to watch first? See how the system works →On this call, we discuss three things: (1) your research questions, (2) how the service works, and (3) whether it fits what you are looking for. Review the written scope, fees, and terms before deciding whether to join.
For business owners and executives with six- and seven-figure portfolios
FAQ
Free, once a month
Get The Sonderberg Letter once a month, with notes on macro, market structure, and sentiment from my research process.
Subscribe to The Sonderberg Letter